【金研•深度】《中国金融市场月报（海外版）》2020年第1期

Original 建行金融市场部 金融街廿五 1 week ago

Highlights

In 2019, China's economy faced fairly large downward pressure. Economic operation was experiencing a shift of new and old drivers, and new sources of economic growth have not yet emerged. The fast-growing inflation pressure in the second half of the year has constrained macro economic policies. GDP growth drop to 6.1% in 2019, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous year.

Looking forward to 2020, China's economic downside risks continue. Macro policies will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, fiscal policies will be more proactive, and the role of infrastructure investment in ensuring investment growth will be further strengthened, and the fiscal deficit target will increase to approximately 3%of GDP in 2020 from 2.8% in the previous year. The sound monetary policy will be maintained with appropriate intensity. The People's Bank of China ("PBC") is likely to lower targeted or broad reserve requirement ratio ("RRR") several times, and lower the MLF and open market operation interest rates to draw down the LPR.

It is expected that China's economic growth will range from 5.9% to 6.2% in 2020, and the divergence of CPI and PPI will last until the middle of the year.

The interest-rate bond yield curve will move downward while tending to be flattened, and the monthly mean of the 10-year government bond yield will range from 2.6% to 3.3%; the exchange rate of RMB against USD will fluctuate between 6.6 and 7.3.

要 点

2019年，中国经济面临较大下行压力，经济运行仍处于新旧动能转化期，新的增长点尚未成型，下半年快速上升的通胀压力，对宏观政策形成掣肘。2019年GDP增速降至6.1%，较上年下降0.5个百分点。

展望2020年，中国经济下行风险仍存。宏观政策加强逆周期调节，财政政策将更为积极，增强基建投资的托底作用，财政赤字率目标或由上年的2.8%提高至3%左右；货币政策继续保持稳健，且更注重灵活适度，中国人民银行（央行）或有多次定向或全面降准，调降MLF和公开市场操作利率，引导LPR下行。

预计2020年中国经济增速在5.9%-6.2%左右；CPI和PPI的分化态势将延续至年中。

中国债券收益率曲线将平坦化下行，10年期国债收益率中枢将在2.6%-3.3%区间波动；人民币对美元的主要波动区间在【6.6，7.3】。

原标题：《【金研•深度】《中国金融市场月报（海外版）》2020年第1期》