IMF下调沙特石油增长前景

原标题：IMF下调沙特石油增长前景

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价1月20日报道，国际货币基金组织（IM F）周一表示，沙特阿拉伯经济今年预计将增长1.9%，下调了对2.2%增长的预测，由于沙特预计石油产量将下降，因为沙特已承诺过超额完成欧佩克+的石油减产计划。

国际货币基金组织在10月发布的1月份《世界经济展望》（WEO）更新中，下调了对全球经济以及中东和中亚地区的经济增长预期。今年中东和中亚的经济增长率目前为2.8%，比10月份的估计下降了0.1个百分点。

在10月份的预测中，国际货币基金组织预计沙特阿拉伯的实际GDP增长在2019年增长0.2%之后，在2020年将上升到2.2%。当时，IMF表示，沙特阿拉伯需要2019年的油价为86.50美元，2020年为83.60美元，以平衡其预算。

IMF如今表示，对2020年的评级下调主要反映出沙特阿拉伯对欧佩克12月决定延长供应削减后石油产量增长预期减弱的预测下调。

在12月举行的OPEC +会议上，OPEC及其合作伙伴决定在2020年第一季度将当前的减产幅度扩大50万桶/日，届时预计需求将是2020年最弱的​​。这将使总日产量减少170万桶，也就是说，如果无赖成员遵循其减产配额。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

IMF Cuts Saudi Arabia’s Growth Outlook Due To OPEC+ Oil Cuts

Saudi Arabia’s economy is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday, revising down its forecast of 2.2-percent growth from just three months ago, due to expected lower Saudi oil production as the Kingdom has pledged to overcomply with the OPEC+ oil production cuts.

In its January update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) from October, the IMF cut on Monday its economic growth projections for the global economy and that in the Middle East and Central Asia region. Economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is now seen at 2.8 percent this year, down by 0.1 percentage point from the October estimate.

In the October forecasts, the IMF had expected Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth to pick up to 2.2 percent in 2020, after sluggish 0.2 percent growth in 2019. Back then, the IMF said that Saudi Arabia would need oil prices at US$86.50 in 2019 and US$83.60 in 2020 in order to balance its budget.

“The downgrade for 2020 mostly reflects a downward revision to Saudi Arabia’s projection on expected weaker oil output growth following the OPEC+ decision in December to extend supply cuts,” the IMF said today.

At the OPEC+ meeting in December, OPEC and its partners decided to deepen the current cuts by 500,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2020, when demand is expected at its weakest for 2020. This brings total production reductions at 1.7 million bpd—that is if rogue members fall in line with their quotas.