2020年石油和天然气行业前景展望

原标题：2020年石油和天然气行业前景展望

中国石化新闻网讯 据世界管道1月1日消息称，随着2019年接近尾声，领先的数据和分析公司GlobalData的高级油气分析师Anna Belova着眼于2020年影响该行业的主要趋势，从更关注天然气开发到推动更短周期的投资:

推动更短周期的投资

随着油气行业远离大型开发项目，全球油气运营商将继续以更短的周期投资争取更快的回报。即使油气储量基数很大，与过去“不惜一切代价最大限度提高峰值产能”的项目相比，未来更有可能进行规模较小、分阶段的开发。

“现在的项目从最终投资决定（FID）到首次石油天然气开发仅需3-4年时间，甚至包括中游组件的大型综合开发项目。

“从全球范围来看，这种趋势最近在埃及的佐尔油田观察到，预计在圭亚那的丽萨油田也会出现这种趋势。这两项技术都是分阶段开发的，目的是提高产能。”

转向天然气

“到2020年，天然气的需求将加速增长，因为它将越来越多地用于取代煤炭和天然气发电。

“对液化天然气(LNG)的投资将继续出现在不同的地区，但问题仍然在于，美国的液化天然气出口将如何通过数量和价格影响国际贸易。持续的天然气供应过剩，再加上美国的中游限制因素，一直在压低美国主要天然气枢纽的天然气价格，从而使美国液化天然气出口在全球市场上可能具有很强的竞争力。”

对石油需求达到峰值的预期

“电动汽车（EV）的兴起以及向天然气动力的转变将给全球石油需求带来下行压力。

“由于不确定的长期需求，石油和天然气运营商将回避高成本的石油储备。生产者过度关注高风险的资本密集型项目，并且没有多元化的投资组合，可能会发现在需求减少的环境中难以生存。

采用新技术

“石油天然气被认为是一个成熟的行业，但技术创新持续颠覆这个行业。钻井和压裂技术的进步使得以前未开发的资源(如超深水区或低渗透页岩地层)可以生产碳氢化合物。美美国页岩油的生产最终改变了全球油气地缘政治格局。

“从人工智能(AI)钻井到远程控制生产设施等新技术将降低生产成本，同时提高资本和运营效率。”

曹海斌 摘译自 世界管道

原文如下：

GlobalData looks at key trends in oil and gas industry for 2020

As 2019 draws to a close, Anna Belova, Senior Oil and Gas Analyst at leading data and analytics company GlobalData, looks at the key trends that will shape the industry in 2020, ranging from stronger focus on gas developments to a push for shorter-cycle investments:

A push for shorter-cycle investments

“Oil and gas operators globally will continue to push for faster returns with shorter cycle investments, as the industry moves away from giant developments. Even with a large reserve base, smaller and phased developments are more likely in the future as compared to the ‘maximizing peak capacity at all costs’ projects of the past.

“Projects now go from final investment decision (FID) to first oil/gas in under 3 - 4 years, even for larger integrated developments with midstream components.

“Globally, this trend was observed with Zohr in Egypt recently and is expected for Liza in Guyana. Both are being developed with phased approach to building up capacity.”

Shift to natural gas

“Demand for natural gas will accelerate in 2020, as it will increasingly be used to replace coal and gas for power generation.

“Investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) will continue to occur across different geographies, but the question will remain on how US LNG exports will impact the international trade via volume and price. Sustained excessive supply of natural gas combined with midstream constraints in the US has been depressing the gas price at the country’s main hubs, thus making the US LNG exports potentially very competitive on the global markets.”

Expectation of peak demand for oil

“Rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and shift to gas-powered electricity will put downward pressure on global oil demand.

“With uncertain long-term demand, oil and gas operators will shy away from high-cost oil reserves. Producers overly focused on high risk capital intensive projects and without diversified portfolios might find it difficult to survive in the reduced demand environment.

Adoption of new technologies

“Oil and gas can be written off as a mature industry, yet technological innovation continue to disrupt the industry. Advancements in drilling and fracturing methods allowed for production of hydrocarbons from previously untapped sources, such as ultra-deepwater locations or low-permeability shale formations. Shale oil production in the US ultimately changed the global oil and gas geopolitical landscape.

“New technologies, ranging from artificial intelligence (AI) enabled drilling to remotely-controlled production facilities will allow for reduction in production costs, while driving capital and operational efficiencies.”