明年石油供应将过剩 天然气需求将增长

原标题：明年石油供应将过剩 天然气需求将增长

中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工新闻12月26日消息称，DWF全球能源主管Slava Kiryushin强调了2020年全球能源领域的预期趋势。

在谈到2020年的全球石油贸易，Kiryushin预计会出现供应过剩的情况。他表示：“许多石油交易商预测，全球石油行业将在2020年迎来牛市，其中一些人甚至猜测，油价可能达到100美元/桶。然而，最近的市场分析表明，这种情况不太可能发生，市场将处于供过于求的状态。我认为这主要是由于页岩气产量的增加和全球经济增速低于预期。国际能源署（IEA）最新报告支持了全球将出现供应过剩的观点。”

“即使是将于2020年1月实施的新航运燃料法规（即IMO 2020），预计也不会改变这一趋势，尽管它可能导致低硫汽油和柴油需求增加。毫无疑问，石油供应的增长对于欧佩克+成员国来说是一个敏感的话题，因为50万桶/天的产量已被同意从欧佩克的供应中削减。总体而言，市场对油价‘复苏’不那么乐观。”

根据Kiryushin的说法，到2020年天然气的需求可能会增长。他表示:“与碳氢化合物不同，天然气的需求可能在2020年及以后出现增长。无论是由于IMO 2020，对化学产品（需要天然气）的需求还是减少温室气体排放的环境推动，都可以证明天然气需求将增长。”

“气候变化也对天然气需求产生了重大影响。无论是在寒冷的冬天作为燃料来保持北半球的温暖，还是在炎热的夏天转换成电力来驱动空调，天然气都将在2020年保持在能源领域的前沿。”

“唯一真正的问题是，与石油相关的天然气价格与替代燃料相比是否具有足够的竞争力。。”

曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工新闻

原文如下：

DWF: Oversupply of oil and demand for gas expected in 2020

Slava Kiryushin, global head of energy at DWF, highlights the expected trends of 2020 in the global energy sector.

Commenting on the global oil trade in 2020, Kiryushin expects there to be an oversupply. He said: "Many oil traders have predicted a bullish 2020 for the global oil industry, with some going as far as speculating the revival of a US$100/bbl price tag. However, recent market analysis demonstrates that this is unlikely to happen and the market will be in a position of oversupply. My view is that this will primarily be due to increased shale production and a slower than expected growth of the global economy. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest reports support the view that there will a global oversupply."

"Even the new shipping fuel regulations set to be implemented in January 2020, known as IMO 2020, are not expected to change this trend despite potentially leading to an increased demand for low-sulfur gasoil and diesel. No doubt that the growth of the oil supply is a sensitive topic for OPEC+ members as 500 000 bbl/d were agreed to be cut from OPEC's supply. Overall, the market is less optimistic over the “revival” of the oil price."

Natural gas is likely to experience growing demand in 2020, according to Kiryushin. He said: "Unlike its hydrocarbon counterpart, natural gas is likely to experience growing demand in 2020 and beyond. Whether this is due to IMO 2020, the demand for chemical products (which require gas) or the environmental push to cut greenhouse emissions, is arguable."

"A change in climate also has a significant impact on the demand for natural gas. Whether used as fuel to keep the northern hemisphere warm during the colder winters or converted into electricity to power air conditioning during hotter summers, gas will remain at the forefront of the Energy sector in 2020."

"The only real question is whether the oil-linked gas price is competitive enough against alternative fuels. "